Indian Rupee: June'13 Outlook & Asian currency weakest in last one year.

A disappointing report of last month and a shocking month for rupee. Report for June Month is on stands now.

Technical Report

USDINR: Rupee trembled to its 11 month low in May and posted its worst month in last 11 months. On weekly time-frame on technical chart Rupee is likely to touch 57.25 and may enter into uncharted territory if it breached 57.3250, its life time low level. USDINR pair is trading above to its 50,100&200 EMA indicates correction can be expected in the dollar against rupee. In near term Rupee likely to find support around 57.01/25. For a rupee to appreciate it need to close above 56.01 and show some corrective gains in two quick sessions, however the momentum still suggests bearishness in the rupee, which can only neglect after the rupee close above 55.50 levels. In short to medium term 54.78 is very crucial level for rupee to enter into any uptrend channel. Rupee could find enough resistance around 55.87/55.63. Crucial data such as CPI on june12 and the RBI decision on interest rate on June 17 will decide further momentum in rupee. For the month of June view is slightly bearish and the rupee may limit the depreciation till 57.01 levels, and strengthen later in the second session of the month. Range for Rupee in the month of June 57.21-55.17. We will review the same in mid June, after an RBI decision on interest rate taken on 17th June.

Asian currencies remain weak in the month of May.

An Illustrative chart shows how badly the month of May was for all major currencies except Yuan.

Asian currencies had their biggest monthly decline in a year as investors pulled money from regional assets after the Federal Reserve said it could taper its stimulus if the US economy shows sustained improvement. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index dropped by the most since May 2012 as US consumer confidence rose to a five-year high. The foreign funds were net sellers of stocks in Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines this week after a report indicated Chinese manufacturing shrank in May. Global investors pulled $224 million from emerging-market bond funds in the week through May 29, as per data published by EPFR Global.

Asian policy makers made efforts to shore up growth in May, with South Korea and Thailand cut their benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5 %. Taiwan's government announced stimulus measures to boost domestic demand to counter a slowdown in exports.

The rupee has declined the most since May 2012 after central bank Governor D.V Subbarao said retail inflation was still high and the nation's balance of payments is under stress. The economy grew 4.8 % in the first quarter; the govt said it last week. The baht slumped for a sixth straight week on concern policy makers will stem inflows. Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said May 29 that an amended regulation will allow the central bank to set conditions or collect fees on money coming in or out of the country. 

South Korea's won fell 2.5 % to 1,129.64 per dollar in May, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Malaysia's Ringgit depreciated 1.7 % to 3.0952, Taiwan's dollar declined 1.5 % to NT$30. 06 and Indonesia's rupiah dropped 0.7 % to 9,795. One country has defied this trend, and it is a big one: China.  The yuan has moved steadily if slowly up against the dollar, China's yuan rose for a third month, strengthening 0.5 % in 6.1345 and touching a 19-year high of 6.1210 on May 27.

With Inputs from Bangkok post, complied by Amit Daga.

A disclaimer: Read the Disclaimer in earlier posts. This post is for information purpose only and not advising any individual or organization on taking any trading decision. The blogger may or may not have any personal interest in the above said the report.

L K Advani Mao’s Moment: Bombarded the headquarters & BJP Atal Problem.

L K Advani Mao’s Moment: Bombarded the headquarters & BJP Atal Problem.

Mao’s cultural revolution from 1966 to 1976 (it officially ended in 1969 by Mao) have two major victims politically, Liu Shaoqi & Deng Xiaoping, while the  earlier died in a very sad state, the former somehow managed to lead the china on its Socialist market economy policy along with other eminent leaders  commonly known as Eight leaders. Mao survived the biggest threat to his political authority and ideology by cleansing the Bourgeoisie , a French term for a wealthy middle class.

Bombarding the headquarters in the picture : Courtesy Google Image.

In late 1990 when Advani completes his Rath Yatra on 30^th Oct he was the tallest Hindu leader in the country and more popular than ABV, who later becomes NDA PM. He was the authority and sole leader on whom Hindutava agenda and the BJP can bank upon, it has actually resulted yields and BJP become the second largest party after the congress, BJP did well in the 1996 election that it was asked to form a govt and from the popular choice within party Advani sidelined himself to give way for more moderate leader ABV. Advani missed that chance which he may regret till now, ABV was a face of NDA, but darling of hinduatva agenda had been always Loha Purush LK Advani. India was posing as a big economic change in its character and many young minds got attracted towards BJP due to ABV times, but still the cause of Hinduatva was on LK shoulders. ABV was shown as a moderate leader among all section even more when he refuses to nudge  before VHP Shialnyas program in ’01. Advani till then was the sole torch bearer of Hinduavta, then come Feb, 02, post Godhra Advani got a companion to ‘Hindu Hridya Samrat’ chair. But by 2004 He realizes that his hard image is hurting his long due ambition to become PM, When NDA lost LK did a total U-turn and start a cultural revolution, a kind of change in BJP. Praised Jinnah on his visit to Pak did not go well with either party or RSS, he was sidelined. Then comes the MMS v's LK moment, Advani was confident he will make to the top post and even go beyond to the extent of making an election in presidential style. He lost that and ever since become a lumber to its very own party which he built in years.

Post ’09 election, Advani is getting high to do a cleansing or face of the mask of BJP from its core character of right-center to more moderate face which than acceptable for allies and media. The same media who haunted him for years for Ayodhya & Babri is projecting him the face of moderate party leader, even MSY is praising him. Till now it’s all good for cultural shifting L K Advani. The only problem two of its top state leader one builds by masses of social media representation and symbol of economic growth, and another bid by ground mass appeal and organization skills. Both were bombarded by the central leadership to keep the bastion intact for the party, both out-performed the expectation of party leadership in their respective states and become the symbol of economic liberalization growth and agriculture growth/social development in their respective states.

Advani is exactly did a Mao moment on Saturday in Gwalior in front of packed 20k party workers when praising Shivraj for making a progress in Bimaru Raaj and going further to compare it with progress made in already prosperous Gujarat. Advani is putting his own vision& culture to party and creating obstacles for the coming general election. Advani urge for PM post is so high clearly by bombarding the headquarter by his blogs/speeches and may do so in the running of the 2014 election. As a patron to the party he can synergies the energy of two most powerful leaders to strengthen the party prospect in coming assembly and general election, instead he is creating a rift b/w two and diluted the case for both. If Advani culture movement succeeds it will be an immediate political murder for Modi, while Shivraj can survive now, but he may never reach to top level in the future after Advani exit.   

Advani equates Shivraj As Atal Ji, it's high time BJP thinks beyond ABV syndrome and stop comparing any leader with him. Let them create their own identity and let ABV rest in the peace of his political retirement.

Immediately After the death of Mao, gang of four arrested and China later moves on to the more economic liberal policy. This is 2013 and the nation wants strong leadership & economic intensification towards the 2020 vision of India. It is time for BJP to survive this cultural revolution of ultra-moderate and not undermine energy of its two powerful state leaders it can lead the nation in the right direction, not the left one.

At Last on Advani recent comments of two states growth I conclude by quoting Mark Twain

“Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please”

The writer can be reached at amitdaga.gwl@gmail.com, Image courtesy: Google Image