Thursday, February 21, 2013

USDINR View : Post FED minutes and its impact on world map.


Global equity markets fell on Wednesday after some Federal Reserve policy-makers said last month the central bank may have to stop or slow its bond-buying program before hiring picks up, while oil slid on the prospect of a boost in Saudi supply. Gold fell nearly 3 percent to a seven-month low in its biggest single-day drop in almost a year. The dollar rallied to session highs against the euro and the yen as some policy-makers said the Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in bonds under measures known as "quantitative easing," or QE, may end before improvement in the labor market occurs. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting released Wednesday reveal that many Fed officials are worried about the costs and risks arising from the $85 billion–per–month asset-purchase program. And they all seem to have their own ideas on how to proceed.
Several Fed officials said the central bank should be prepared to vary the pace of the asset-purchase plan depending on the outlook or how the program was working. One wanted to vary it on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
“The minutes ... show a committee that is far less unified than at any other time in the past few years,” said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities.
The Fed said a review of the program had been set for March. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference at the end of the two-day meeting on March 20.
Euro crumble & Yen holds the gain it made in previous session. With Dollar Index Inching towards 81.25, and pressure on Asian currency will keep Rupee on downside. For a while equity market across the globe looks vulnerable and may correct from these levels to atleast by 2-3%. The only relief Rupee could see will be from the Oil price as Brent is trading firm near to $115.20 despite a sharp correction in WTI prices yesterday. For a while in changing scenario we could expect rupee to fall towards 54.47/53 and even to level of 54.75, as earlier on Monday we reported. But as Economist suggest Fed defer to decide about QE3 & Bond Buying Purchase will indicate broader economic recovery in underway. In a short term market may back to fundamentals of economy and resume upside. So Far looking for weaker rupee and stronger Dollar.
With Inputs From Reuters and MarketWatch, Compiled By Amit Daga.
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