On Weekly chart in candlestick pattern Rupee likely to find
support around 54.27 and resistance around 53.81.Techincal Chart Reading
suggest rupee is taking support near to lower band trend line. Rupee likely to
get strengthen towards 52.89 in coming days or by next week. On the support
side rupee finds first support around 54.27 and 54.50 as second support, in
extreme bearish condition rupee may breach up to 54.85 as per chart suggesting
to upper channel range. In a broader sense rupee is more likely to gain first
towards 53.81 and 53.50 in this week. Ideally rupee is targeting towards 52.89
in coming days. One can be bearish on rupee only after it breach sway beyond 54.67
and hold the fall in market, still the view suggest remaining bullish on rupee
for the week.
Last Week our technical outlook on rupee and the range went
almost correct. Lots of news and action happen last week across the globe and
financial instruments. Rupee lost to 54.62 and made a low of 54.02 and close at
54.18. Last week after substantially rupee get support from couple of factors
as inflows related to TPG Capital's $305 million stake sale in Indian
commercial vehicle financier Shriram Transport Finance Co Ltd and foreign
fund-related dollar inflows from banks, which were bunched up as trading was
thin on Wednesday & Thursday due to a two-day national strike, which kept
most dealers at state-run banks away, as cited by inter-bank forex dealer. Last
week we saw two altered views from FED & BOE minutes that released on
Wednesday, Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting released Wednesday
reveal that many Fed officials are worried about the costs and risks arising
from the $85 billion–per–month asset-purchase program. And they all seem to
have their own ideas on how to proceed, whereas BOE. The notes from the meeting
show that three of the nine committee members are now in favour of injecting
more cash into the UK economy, compared to only one member in January. Mr. King, Paul
Fisher and David Miles voted to increase the size of the BOE's bond-buying
stimulus program by £25 billion ($38.7 billion) to £400 billion, saying further
asset purchases would help the U.K. economy expand without stoking inflation.
GBP trembled near to its two year
low and continue to fall further after BOE minutes suggest weaker economy, On
Friday Moody’s rating cut on British bonds from its triple A to one notch Aa1
also hit a big blow to pound later in Friday evening. Across the globe
commodity dropped by more than 3% and gold made lowest point in last six
months. Brent also lost more than $3.5 and trading below the comfortable low of
$114.Dollar Index touch its three month high at 81.58.
Key indicators suggest that Asian
and European economy may do well in coming months, and major equity indices are
still looking positive on technical charts. Rupee may find support from local
factors, Brent oil prices and with Budget session on the minds of every
investor the coming week could see more volatility and support from FII in
flows as suggested rise in CBOE volatility index indicates more yet to come in
coming week with mounting volatility in market.
Complied By Amit Daga.
Disclaimer : Please read the disclaimer posted earlier in the blogger's Post.
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