On weekly Timeframe in Candlestick chart pattern, GBP looks
bearish.GBP breached 4Y support line around 1.56477 last week, it continue with
the fall and cut deep below to its trend support line of 1.52715 which was
giving enormous technical support to GBP in last two years, it also reverse the
trend three time bottom-out and five time reversal from near to 1.52715 levels.
However this time GBP can go down well below to 1.50355 and can stop near to
1.49025.On Technical chart indicator are suggesting oversold RSI is near to 35
and prices are way below to its 200 EMA and 50 EMA, but still a slight
correction towards 1.53017 can correct RSI levels and pound can fall from that.
Ideally GBP can go down below to 1.48995 and likely to stop the current
correction in prices due to several technical and fundamental reasons. Ideal
resistance would be 1.54760 and 1.53106 can treated as trend line resistance
for short term. Support on technical charts seems to be around 1.50335 and
thereafter 1.48758.
On fundamental side The Bank of
England minutes seemed to indicate that the MPC were ready to add additional
stimulus if warranted and then a mixed bag in the jobs market with unemployment
climbing to 7.8% matching the US with claimant count coming in better than
expected. Minutes from the BoE’s latest policy meeting have sparked fears of
the effect that more QE would have on the economy, which is already bracing
itself against the threat of a triple-dip recession. The notes from the meeting
show that three of the nine committee members are now in favour of injecting
more cash into the UK economy, compared to only one member in January. Mr. King, Paul
Fisher and David Miles voted to increase the size of the BOE's bond-buying
stimulus program by £25 billion ($38.7 billion) to £400 billion, saying further
asset purchases would help the U.K. economy expand without stoking inflation. In
London last week, the BOE raised its inflation forecasts. However, those
opposed to additional bond purchases discussed alternative ways to stimulate
the economy, such as encouraging greater lending, the meeting minutes showed.
The minutes
of the Bank of England’s February meeting struck a dovish tone, fuelling fears
over the possibility of more easing by the central bank. Minutes from the Bank of England's last policy meeting showed growing
support for more stimulus to boost the U.K.'s flagging economy. "Today's minutes caught a lot of
people off guard because the BOE has previously tried to distance itself from
more quantitative easing as it was pushing up inflation," said Paul
Robson, European head of FX strategy at the RBS.
The pound has been one of the worst-performing currencies
this year. As the euro zone's debt crisis has subsided, sterling's appeal as a
haven alternative to the euro has dimmed. Investors instead have focused on the
quandary facing the U.K.'s central bank and its political leaders—how to
stimulate weak growth without further fuelling stubbornly high inflation.
