USDINR Weekly View 25-29 March

USDINR Daily Chart

On Daily time-frame in technical charts rupee is signalling bullish trend which may continue for this month end.RSI at 50 still suggest the pair is not oversold and more correction in dollar can be seen in coming sessions. After a strong opening on Monday, rupee touched 53.91 and thereafter falls to 54.53 after Cyprus fallout news and uncertain political event grip the market nerves in last going week. As per charts 54.03 could be the first hurdle to breach and after that 53.82 could be seen on charts. Ideally rupee is posing rally towards 53.57 if dollar fails to hold the gains against major currencies, it made in recent days. On the other side strong support around 54.32/54.51 is visible. As per charts rupee is more likely to trade in a tight narrow range of 53.92/54.51 in coming session. Only a breakout on either range will confirm next price action in rupee. Forming of Head and Shoulders pattern also suggest a breach of 53.97 and closing below to this level will further weak dollar against rupee on daily timeframe in technical charts. On the flip side buying in dollar by Oil Marketing Company due to higher oil prices and political uncertainty can put some pressure on rupee and technically correction in rupee beyond 54.41 can lead the pair towards 54.67/71.

Complied By : Amit Daga

Please read the disclaimer posted in earlier post.The above mentioned view is for information purpose and not for any trading decision.

USDINR Weekly View 18-22 Mar13

Last week rupee traded broadly as per our expectation in our weekly report.  India’s rupee rose the most in a week on speculation a slowing inflation measure that excludes food will allow the central bank to reduce interest rates next week, spurring buying of the nation’s stocks. “An RBI rate cut next week can lead to the rupee outperforming in Asia,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. “The currency is one of our favourites in the longer term”, commented by Jonathan Cavanaugh. The Indian rupee Friday climbed to its highest level in two weeks against the U.S. dollar on broad selling in the greenback across the region. Dollar closed at 54.01 against rupees on Friday, a level not seen since Feb 27. The government sold 5% stake in state-run National Aluminium Co Ltd to raise at least 5.1 billion rupees ($93.91 million) on Friday. Banks and exporters preferred to reduce their dollar position at the current stage in view of sustained capital inflows coupled with weakness in dollar overseas, Forex dealers said. Stake sale may take place by next week in steel maker SAIL by 10.82 %. With the inflation data out, the focus will shift to the RBI's policy review on March 19. A rate cut, the central bank's second easing this year, would help improve confidence about economic growth, and potentially sparking gains in the rupee. Net Inflow from FII, as per data from SEBI, comes at $1040.65M this week; with $200.36M alone on Friday on account of stake sell in NALCO by Govt.

On Daily timeframe in technical charts rupee likely to continue its upward moves in coming week.RSI at 47 still suggest the pair is not oversold and more downside on the dollar may witness in coming sessions. After strong opening on Monday rupee is continuously trading higher against dollar and close on the higher note. As per charts 53.93 could be the first hurdle to breach and after that 53.72 could be seen on charts. Ideally rupee can lead the rally towards 53.57 if dollar do not resist in between. On the other side strong support around 54.22/54.34 is visible. As per charts rupee is bullish and any breakout above 53.72 can confirm short term rally in rupee. Parabolic channel at 54.91 suggest that in short term dollar will find it tough to gain against rupee. On the flip side buying in dollar by Oil Marketing Company and technical correction in rupee beyond 54.37 can lead the pair towards 54.57.

Complied By : Amit Daga

Disclaimer : Please read the disclaimer posted in earlier post of the same blogger.This is for sharing of view purpose only and do not suggest or hold any liability occur due to any trading decision.

USDINR View 12th March

USDINR : Technically rupee is heading towards 54.11 and even higher towards 53.93,but it need to breach 54.17 and sustain above those level to confirm the continuous upward trend. Rupee is facing strong resistance around 54.21/23 levels and it is more likely to fall from these levels if it can’t sustain at these levels. On the downside 54.37 is good support followed by 54.465.Rupee is trading in very narrow range of 25-30 paisa, breakout on either side can direct the future direction for prices.