USDINR Monthly View : May2013

USDINR : After posting two consecutive month positive closing rupee is heading towards 52.45/13 in long term. In compare to march month, rupee in April priced at lower high and higher low, despite the range in last two month for rupee is very thin 55.09-53.66 last day price movement in rupee of April suggests more volatility and price movement could be seen on charts in next month.

Rupee in last few sessions traded in very tight range due to lack of any major market sentiment and discounted news of better inflation and deficit numbers released last month. After hitting 53.77 in second week of April rupee substantially fails to hold the gains and falls to 54.45, but last day rally in rupee surprise market along with investor friendly news. Rupee is now managed to breach its upper resistance channel around 53.87 where it always rebound from these highs.

On weekly timeframe Rupee is now having strong support of 54.33 with minor support at 54.17. Rupee is likely to get strengthen in coming session with an immediate target of 53.23/52.84. However in a rare case rupee may break 54.33 and goes down till 54.57. Rupee may correct itself till 54.17 and continue to hold the gains thereafter. Support & resistance levels May Month.

S1 53.90

S2 54.17

S3 54.33

R1 53.55

R2 53.23

R3 52.84

India will cut a levy on foreign investment in rupee-denominated government and corporate bonds to attract overseas capital and narrow the nation’s current- account deficit. The measures may lure foreign investors, who are restricted to $75 billion of Indian debt, and help finance the current account gap. Reducing withholding tax on rupee bonds of Indian corporate and government securities will attract overseas lenders to put in more debt investments in India. Overseas investors bought $3.3 billion of government and corporate debt so far in 2013, compared with $6.86 billion last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Indian companies sold 792 billion rupees ($14.7 billion) of bonds in 2013, about 5 percent more than in the same period of 2012, the data show. 

Disclaimer : Read the Disclaimer in earlier posts. This post is for information purpose only and not advising any individual or organization on taking any trading decision. The blogger may or may not have any personal interest in above said report.